There are two reasons I try to be extremely careful when calling for people to take action against rising tyranny. On one hand, we don’t want to give the powers-that-be too much credit; I’ve been accused of thinking they’re playing 4D chess when they’re really just playing checkers. On the other hand, we definitely don’t want to underestimate them and come into a fight flat-footed.
This is where discernment and prayerful reckoning must come into play. The tyranny du jour that’s rising around us is medical in nature as Pandemic Panic Theater 2.0 ramps up, just as many of us have been predicting for a while. The good news is we’re already seeing many patriots and skeptics ringing the alarm bells about the “election variants” of Covid-19 that are magically popping up ahead of 2024. The bad news is the vast majority of “normies” are getting gaslit by corporate media propaganda fearmongering.
Part of me thinks the powers-that-be must have something bigger cooked up. Are they going to simply rely on a rinse-and-repeat version of 2020 knowing the pushback will be much more fierce this time? Am I overestimating this “massive” pushback from the people? It’s easy to complain on social media but harder to apply when real lockdowns, mask mandates, and new “vaccines” and “boosters” hit the shelf.
I struggled with putting my thoughts together for this column because it seems we’re facing the overestimate-vs-underestimate conundrum. If we get as many people as possible prepared to ignore and protest the coming lockdowns, what happens if the calculus changes? For example, what if they roll out a variant that’s actually worthy of concern? Do we risk losing credibility and possibly costing lives by telling people to ignore the lockdowns, only to find out that they’ve unleashed an actual killer coronavirus?
Fear cannot drive us. I can second guess everything and paralyze myself thinking the adversaries are too smart, but that means inaction. Therefore, if I’m going to err then it’ll be on the side of freedom. Could they be planning something bigger than Covid-19 for us? Absolutely. But if we make plans to play it safe then we might as well sign over all of our rights immediately. Therefore, we must move forward with the working theory that they’re just going to try to play us for fools again with gaslighting and propaganda instead of unleashing an actual deadly disease.
In short, I’m not going to overthink it. Liars are going to lie so let’s move forward assuming Pandemic Panic Theater 2.0 will be nothing more than Kabuki.
What does that really mean from a practical perspective? It means we need to get organized at the local level. There isn’t a legitimate way to fight what’s coming on the national level. As for the states, we need to push red state legislators to fight all mandates and we need to assume all blue states will fall in line giddily with renewed medical tyranny. But at the local level, we can make a direct impact on our own lives, the lives of our families, and the communities around us.
Many cities and counties have groups that are (or at least were) already organized to push back against lockdowns. If they’re still active, we need to join them and help to advance them. If they’re inactive, we need to activate them. If you can’t find an appropriate one in your area, consider getting with peers and launching anew. I met one of my sponsors, “Our Gold Guy” Ira Bershatsky, because of his involvement with a group fighting medical tyranny in a Southern California city. They met every Sunday in a park with guest speakers and calls to action. It’s time for such groups to become active again.
It’s also time to talk to friends and family about this. Credibility comes with being right, so telling your “normie” relationships that lockdowns are coming back to establish control factors ahead of the election might cause some of them to roll their eyes today, but they’ll be more inclined to listen to you once it comes to pass. It makes sense to discuss it now so that when it happens we can be a knowledgeable guide to tell the “normies” how to properly respond.
The rise of medical tyranny must be met with far more pushback than we offered in 2020. Fear prevented freedom from winning back then. It cannot be allowed to do the same in 2023 and beyond.
Sound off about this on my Substack.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
