(End of the American Dream)—Do you feel like we are on the precipice of another major turning point? If someone asked me that question at this moment, I would have to respond in the affirmative. Personally, I am going to be on high alert throughout the entire month of October, because it appears that some really big things could be about to happen. In particular, there is a lot of chatter that a major false flag event could be imminent. The Ukrainians know that the only way that they can win their war with Russia is if NATO joins the fighting, and Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova is alleging that the Ukrainians plan to conduct some sort of an attack in NATO territory and blame it on the Russians…
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has predicted the imminent outbreak of World War III, if Hungarian media reports about Kiev’s plans to stage a false flag operation in Romania and Poland are confirmed.
In her Telegram channel, she drew attention to reports in several Hungarian media outlets about Vladimir Zelensky’s plans to carry out sabotage in Romania and Poland with the aim of blaming Russia.
“His office on Bankovaya Street is preparing its own version of the ‘Gleiwitz incident’ – with the aim of creating a casus belli for a war between Russia and NATO,” she explained. “If all this is confirmed, then we must admit: never in modern times has Europe been so close to the outbreak of World War III.”.
Zakharova is not the only one making such allegations.
In fact, on Tuesday Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned that there is a plan for a Ukrainian sabotage group to conduct some sort of an attack in Poland in order to draw “NATO countries into armed conflict with Moscow”…
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) issued a statement on Tuesday claiming that Ukraine is planning a false flag attack in the European Union. Moscow says this planned attack involves a Ukrainian “sabotage group” going to Poland posing as Russian and Belarusian special forces for the purpose of “drawing European NATO countries into armed conflict with Moscow.”
“Kiev expects to prompt European countries to respond to Russia as harshly as possible, preferably in a military manner,” the SVR said.
The reason the Russians are revealing what they know is because they are hoping to avert a false flag event by exposing it in advance.
Hopefully they will succeed, because right now we are in a gray zone that exists somewhere between war and peace.
If you doubt this, just consider something that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz just said.
At a conference in Dusseldorf, he openly admitted that “we are no longer at peace”…
The German chancellor did not pull his punches when addressing the Düsseldorf conference, outlining the stark future faced by the West.
“Let me put it in a sentence that may be a little shocking at first glance … we are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either,” he said.
He added that Russia was waging a “war against our democracy and a war against our freedom”, as it sought to undermine EU unity.
Yesterday, I listed 9 signs that the U.S. and NATO are preparing for war. To me, the most ominous development is the fact that the U.S. is strongly considering sending Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine.
Needless to say, the Ukrainians would not be able to operate the Tomahawks on their own. U.S. military personnel would need to be involved…
Should the US deliver Tomahawks to Ukraine, the missiles would have to be operated by either US or UK technicians and would need to be supported by US overhead intelligence to select targets and program the missiles to hit them.
Russia would regard the Tomahawks as a direct US intervention, and in fact there is no convenient way the US could deny operating the weapons. This means that if Trump authorizes the missiles, he also is directing the US military (or surrogate British) to use them against Russia.
We must not do this.
If Tomahawk cruise missiles start slamming into the heart of Moscow, the Russians would go nuts.
But western leaders are desperate to do something to alter the trajectory of the war, because the Russians just keep moving forward.
According to a report that was posted on Zero Hedge, the Russians are now getting very close to taking the city of Kupiansk…
Ukrainian public broadcaster hromadske, citing Andrii Besedin, Head of Kupiansk City Military Administration, on the national joint 24/7 newscast, stated that:
“The situation is critical. In addition to sabotage and reconnaissance groups that have infiltrated or are infiltrating the city, the enemy carries out extensive attacks on the city and the surrounding territory. The proximity of the front line enables them to strike with everything in their arsenal: tanks, mortars, artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems. Guided aerial bombs are being dropped daily on the territory of the Kupiansk hromada. Fibre-optic FPV drones that cannot be jammed by electronic warfare are effectively hunting civilians and vehicles. Every route into and through the city, all logistical routes are, unfortunately, under the watch of enemy drones.”
Besedin added that the city’s infrastructure has collapsed: there is no power, water, gas supply, mobile connectivity or social services. Hundreds of residents have so far refused to evacuate.
This lines up with reports that civilians still in the city are only able to leave on foot and then find transport to the west. If Kupiansk falls then a large portion of the northeastern front will likely be enveloped by the Russians, allowing them to advance on Kharkiv.
If Kupiansk falls, that will be a major blow to the government in Kiev.
And the more desperate the government in Kiev becomes, the more likely it is that they will decide to do something really stupid.
Meanwhile, it appears that things are about to get very “interesting” in the Middle East.
This week, President Trump unveiled his 20 point plan for peace in Gaza, and that plan was quickly accepted by the Israeli government…
US President Donald Trump laid out his plan for ending the war in Gaza during a White House press conference with visiting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, declaring that Washington is “beyond very close” to reaching a deal after Jerusalem accepted the proposal, while Arab and Muslim countries committed to disarming Hamas.
If Hamas also accepts the plan, the war in Gaza will finally come to an end.
President Trump has indicated that he will give Hamas “three or four days” to make a final decision…
President Trump has given Hamas “three or four days” to agree to his Gaza peace deal or else the Palestinian terror group will face “a very sad end.”
Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Trump touted his 20-point peace deal as the best way to end the two-year-old conflict in Gaza after Israel agreed to the terms yesterday.
“We’re just waiting for Hamas,” Trump said as he presented his deadline.
Hamas should grab this deal. Unfortunately, it appears that is not going to happen.
According to Reuters, the leaders of Hamas seem to think that this deal contains “impossible conditions”…
The plan specifies an immediate ceasefire, an exchange of all hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, a staged Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the disarmament of Hamas and the introduction of a transitional government led by an international body.
A source close to Hamas told Reuters the plan was “completely biased to Israel” and imposed “impossible conditions” that aimed to eliminate the group.
If Hamas rejects the deal, there will be no more negotiations.
Israel is already promising to “finish the job”, and that means completely eliminating Hamas. I will be watching the Middle East more closely than ever in the weeks ahead.
Let’s just say that I would not be shocked if some sort of an “unexpected surprise” happens. So much that I have been writing about for years is now starting to play out right in front of our eyes.
Let us urge our leaders to seek peace, but I have a feeling that all hope for peace is about to be taken from us.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
