(End of the American Dream)—Global events are moving very rapidly now. If I keep adding more stuff to this article, I will never get it out on time. You are going to be shocked by some of the things that have just happened. It appears that the showdown in Iran between the protesters and the government is about to reach a violent crescendo. Meanwhile, it is being reported that the Russians have just fired an Oreshnik missile at one of Ukraine’s largest cities. Many of us expected 2026 to be absolutely crazy, and so far it is certainly living up to expectations.
Thursday was the 12th day of the ongoing protests in Iran, and CNN is telling us that one human rights organization is reporting that 45 protesters have been killed so far…
At least 45 protesters, including eight children under the age of 18, have been killed in the first 12 days of ongoing nationwide protests in Iran, the Norway-based Iran Human Rights NGO (IHRNGO) reported Thursday. It said hundreds more have been injured and over 2,000 people detained since demonstrations began on December 28, 2025.
“State forces have used live ammunition to suppress the protests and have carried out widespread, mass arrests in some cities,” IHRNGO said.
Iranian news outlets reported Thursday that at least five security personnel have also been killed in the unrest, including two members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Over and over again we are hearing that live ammunition is being used against the protesters.
But the protesters are not backing down.
In fact, we are being told that protesters are even starting fires in the streets of Tehran…
In one of the clips, a structure described by journalist Amirhossein Miresmaeili as a “government building” could be seen engulfed by fire. Several people could be seen chanting “Long live the Shah” and clapping their hands as the scene unfolded. Recirculating a video he said to have received, the journalist said: “What an extraordinary crowd! Received from Haft Hoz Tehran, just now on 18 Dey; people, along with the chant ‘Long live the Shah’, are witnessing the burning of a government building.
“The sender said: ‘Tonight, the people of Tehran have taken to the streets in response to the prince’s million-strong call.’”
Another clip shared on social media showed fires in the streets of Tehran, with the poster claiming vehicles owned by Iranian forces had been set ablaze.
Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi is greatly encouraging the violence, and some protesters have been heard chanting his name…
At least some of the protesters appeared to be heeding a call by exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to turn out Thursday. One of the slogans shouted by the marchers was “This is the last battle, Pahlavi will return,” according to video reviewed by CNN.
As the latest protests unfolded, Pahlavi posted encouragement on X, urging Iranians to “take to the streets and, as a united front, shout your demands.” He added, “Rise Iran!”
I think that the regime in Iran has seen enough.
They aren’t just going to sit there and allow these protesters to start a revolution.
So on Thursday they decided to start shutting down Internet access for the general population…
Iranian authorities appeared to be cutting off internet access Thursday in the capital and some other regions of the country as mass protests and chanting against the government continue. Multiple sources in Tehran told CBS News the internet was down in the capital.
The NetBlocks monitoring organization said at about 8:30 local time in Iran that its live data “show #Iran is now in the midst of a nationwide internet blackout; the incident follows a series of escalating digital censorship measures targeting protests across the country and hinders the public’s right to communicate at a critical moment.”
One CBS News source in the capital said there were “huge crowds out across Tehran. Unprecedented,” and confirmed that the internet was down for most people in the city. He said some people, with more robust, more reliable business accounts could still get online. Not long after, that source became unreachable, suggesting the blackout had widened even further.
If you were preparing a nationwide violent crackdown, this is the first thing that you would do.
Many are speculating that this Internet blackout is a sign that a mass slaughter of protesters is about to commence.
In addition, the Iranian regime has just brought in “roughly 850 Hezbollah, Iraqi militia and Quds Force-linked fighters” to help deal with the protesters…
As anti-regime protests spread across Iran for a 12th straight day, the Islamic Republic has reportedly turned to foreign militias for support, with two independent sources confirming that roughly 850 Hezbollah, Iraqi militia and Quds Force-linked fighters crossed into Iran to bolster the regime’s security forces.
The reported movement marks a significant escalation in the regime’s response, signaling a willingness to rely on allied foreign militias with combat experience to help suppress domestic dissent.
“This is nothing new for the regime. It is the logical extension of a playbook the ruling clerics have used since 1979 to outsource repression to ideologically loyal militias and then integrate them into the state’s coercive infrastructure,” Iran expert Lisa Daftari told Fox News Digital.
Many Iranians soldiers may be hesitant to fire on their fellow citizens, and foreign militants are more likely to blindly follow the instructions of the Islamic zealots that are currently running Iran.
But if the Iranians really do start gunning down large numbers of protesters, they risk being attacked by the United States.
On Thursday, President Trump warned that the U.S. military will “hit them very hard” if protesters continue to get killed…
The unrest prompted US President Donald Trump on Thursday to repeat his threat to attack Iran if security forces kill protesters.
“I have let them know that if they start killing people, which they tend to do during their riots … we’re going to hit them very hard,” Trump told radio host Hugh Hewitt.
And Trump also told Hewitt that this message has been conveyed to the Iranians “even more strongly than I’m speaking to you right now”…
Mr Hewitt pointed out that some deaths were caused by stampedes, to which the US president responded: “I’m not sure I can necessarily hold somebody responsible for that.
“But… They’ve been told very strongly — even more strongly than I’m speaking to you right now — that if they do that, they’re going to have to pay hell.”
He then delivered a message to the protestors: “You should feel strongly about freedom… You’re brave people. It’s a shame what’s happened to your country. Your country was a great country.”
Trump isn’t bluffing.
So let’s hope that the Iranians back down.
Because once the missiles start flying, things will get really crazy in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the Russians have made it exceedingly clear that they have no intention of accepting the “peace plan” that the Ukrainians and the Europeans have been working on…
The Russian Foreign Ministry on Thursday rejected the latest US-backed offering to end the Russia-Ukraine war, issuing a blistering rebuff that threatens to blow up President Trump’s peace plan.
A terse statement from Moscow’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs slammed the US-European proposal for security assurances for Ukraine, saying the protection plan amounts to “a true axis of war.”
“The document turned out to be extremely far from a peace settlement. The declaration is not aimed at achieving a lasting peace and security but rather at continuing the militarization, escalation and further conflict aggravation,” the ministry claimed.
We have known from the very beginning that the list of demands that the Ukrainians and the Europeans were putting together was completely unrealistic.
Now they will likely claim that peace with Russia is “impossible” and that it will be necessary to escalate the war.
Of course the Russians just escalated matters by using an Oreshnik missile to strike Lviv…
Reports indicate that an Oreshnik missile struck Lviv Thursday, which is located just 40 miles from the EU and the NATO territory.
Thursday night’s attack, orchestrated by Russia, marks the second instance in which an Oreshnik ballistic missile was used in a strike.
Footage of the warheads from the Oreshnik missile raining down on Lviv has been posted on Instagram.
NATO has no way to intercept those warheads, and so there is nothing that Ukraine can do.
If the Russians start frequently using Oreshniks to hit Ukrainian cities, our European allies are going to go absolutely nuts.
They will be begging President Trump to do something dramatic.
Since the Russians have now rejected the “peace plan” that the media was talking about so much, Trump might be inclined to agree.
Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.
Unfortunately, I have a feeling that it is going to be nearly impossible to reverse course at this stage.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
