(The Economic Collapse Blog)—For years, our economy and our financial markets have been artificially propped up. Since 2008, politicians in Washington have added about 26 trillion dollars to the national debt, and bureaucrats at the Fed have pumped trillions of freshly created dollars into the financial system. If we could go back and undo just those two things, we would be living an economic horror show right now. Piling up the largest mountain of debt in the history of the world has enabled us to live way, way, way beyond our means. On a personal level, if you borrowed and spent millions of dollars that you did not have, you would also be able to live a lifestyle that you do not deserve. Debt is extremely seductive, because it is a way to make the present a lot more pleasant. But there is always a price to be paid in the end.
Here in 2025, government spending is being slashed in many areas, the Federal Reserve is choosing not to step in even though turmoil has erupted on Wall Street, consumer confidence is falling dramatically, home sales are collapsing, mass layoffs are happening all over the nation, and now a global trade war has begun.
At this stage, it should be apparent to everyone that we are headed for big trouble. The following are 9 signs that conditions are ripe for a major economic crisis in the United States…
#1 During the first three months of this year, which was before the trade war erupted, U.S. GDP was contracting at a 0.3 percent annual rate…
U.S. economic growth slowed sharply in the first quarter of 2025 as businesses rushed to stockpile goods ahead of President Trump’s sweeping tariff policies.
The nation’s gross domestic product — the total value of products and services — shrank at a 0.3% annual rate, down from growth of 2.4% in the final three months of 2024, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday in its initial GDP estimate. It’s the worst quarterly performance for the U.S. economy since early 2022, when the economy was in recovery after cratering during the COVID pandemic.
The U.S. economy was forecast to show 0.8% growth in the first three months of 2025, according to the average estimate of economists polled by FactSet.
#2 Consumer confidence is absolutely plummeting…
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86 on the month, down 7.9 points from its prior reading and below the Dow Jones estimate for 87.7. It was the lowest reading in nearly five years.
However, the view of conditions further out deteriorated even more.
The board’s expectations index, which measures how respondents look at the next six months, tumbled to 54.4, a decline of 12.5 points and the lowest reading since October 2011. Board officials said the reading is consistent with a recession.
#3 Major layoffs are being announced on an almost daily basis. For example, UPS just announced that it will be laying off approximately 20,000 workers…
The United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to reduce its workforce by roughly 20,000 during 2025, citing “new or increased tariffs” and “changes in general economic conditions in the U.S. or internationally” for the cuts.
UPS announced the layoffs April 29 in its first quarter earnings report, in which the parcel delivery service said it made consolidated revenues of $21.5 billion, compared to $21.7 billion around the same time a year ago. The shipping company also said it would be closing roughly 164 facilities by the end of the year.
#4 According to the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, incoming cargo volume will be down more than 35 percent next week compared to a year ago…
Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that he expects incoming cargo volume to slide by more than a third next week compared with the same period in 2024.
“According to our own port optimizer, which measures the loadings in Asia, we’ll be down just a little bit over 35% next week compared to last year. And it’s a precipitous drop in volume with a number of major American retailers stopping all shipments from China based on the tariffs,” Seroka said.
#5 It is being reported that container bookings from China to the United States have fallen “by as much as 60%”…
By another estimate, container bookings from China to the U.S. are down by as much as 60%, according to Flexport, a supply chain management company. Bookings from other Asia ports, such as Vietnam and Thailand, are up 5% to 10% as some exporters look to expand production outside of China to avoid steep tariffs.
The decline in bookings from China comes during what is usually a busy period for imports to the U.S.
“We would normally see an increase in bookings across the board, because this is the beginning of the shipping year,” said Nathan Strang, director of ocean freight at Flexport. “It’s when back-to-school items and Halloween items start to come in.”
#6 Apollo Global Management is warning that mass layoffs in the trucking industry are imminent…
The trucking industry, critical to U.S. logistics, faces significant challenges as tariffs disrupt trade, particularly with China. A sharp decline in container ship voyages from China is expected to reduce freight volumes, thereby lowering demand for trucking services. Imports account for an estimated 20% of U.S. trucking volumes, so a decline in imports will have a significant impact on the industry. With fewer goods to transport, carriers will face reduced workloads and underutilized fleets, forcing them to cut labor costs.
Apollo predicts that domestic freight activity will sharply slow by mid-May, with mass layoffs likely to follow as firms strive to maintain financial stability. The slowdown in trucking will put a lot of pressure on trucking companies that have been dealing with the Great Freight Recession, one of the longest and deepest downturns in history.
#7 One recent study found that a whopping 74 percent of all U.S. workers are currently living paycheck to paycheck…
Financial insecurity compounds these workplace stresses, with nearly three-quarters (74%) of workers living paycheck to paycheck.
#8 Student loan delinquencies in the U.S. have soared into unprecedented territory…
But even with this factored in, Nelnet’s data shows a spike in delinquencies compared with before the pandemic. A staggering 15 percent of borrowers are more than 90 days delinquent, which is reported to credit bureaus.
If this wave of delinquencies continues, the Education Department has warned that 10 million borrowers — nearly a quarter of the total — could be in default within a few months.
#9 Almost a quarter of all U.S. adults are currently facing “unmanageable” debt levels…
In honor of Financial Literacy Month, Experian offers a closer look at the financial hurdles many are facing – and how some are overcoming them.
Nearly 1 in 4 U.S. adults currently have “unmanageable” debt, as of April 1, according to a survey of 1,000 respondents. Unmanageable debt is defined as when an individual is forced to choose between debt payments and basic necessities.
We have been living in an economic fantasy world.
But now the bubble is starting to burst and people are freaking out.
The only way to return the economy to the level that we have become accustomed to would be to do the same foolish things that our leaders have been doing for decades.
If our politicians in Washington borrow and spend trillions of additional dollars that we do not have, and if the Federal Reserve feverishly pumps even more fresh money into the financial system, that would buy us a little more time.
But it would also make our long-term problems even worse.
No matter how hard we try, economic reality is going to catch up with us eventually.
And when that finally happens, we are going to witness a societal meltdown that is unlike anything we have ever seen before.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
