Update (0200ET): President Trump responded on Truth Social:
Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer. There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place. They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever. Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success. Likewise, Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin. Too many lives are being so needlessly wasted, too many families destroyed, and if it keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!
Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has fled his country as a radical Islamist group enters Damascus. This rapid escalation of the 13-year civil war took many by surprise with Iran and Russia unable to help protect their ally.
The most significant news from the Middle East since the Hamas terrorist raid on Israel last year is happening in real time and for whatever reason legacy media is giving it the minimum required coverage as if it’s just another skirmish in the war-torn region. It’s not.
We will be updating this with combined reports from multiple independent sources. Here is the initial report and first update from Zero Hedge:
Update (2200ET): Damascus has fallen. Unverified reports say President Assad and top officials have fled to Dubai or elsewhere but the situation overnight is fluid and anything but clear in terms of the location of top leadership. They may be in Latakia on the coast, or headed there. What is clear, however, is that the jihadists have entered the heart of the capital.
This brings to an end the last secular and Baathist state in the Middle East, and 50+ years of Assad family rule. Journalist Danny Makki, who is currently in Damascus, observes:
Literally Syrian military/security around Damascus just fled, ran away, changed into civilian clothes escaped, there was no battle for Damascus, it was abandoned and by tommorow it will be all under opposition control.
Abassiyeen Square in Central Damascus, soldiers/military abandoning positions, changing into civilian clothes. pic.twitter.com/vJzvdaUeVb
— Danny Makki (@danny_makki) December 8, 2024
And Al Jazeera reports:
Videos from the Syrian capital, verified by Al Jazeera, appears to show soldiers leaving the city. The sound of gunfire could also be heard.
The footage was taken moments before opposition forces claimed entering Damascus. There’s been no confirmation or denial from government forces.
“Syrian rebel sources tell Al Jazeera Arabic that government forces have withdrawn from the Defence Ministry headquarters in Damascus,” the report further indicates. State TV channels are in the hands of the anti-Assad factions.
⚡️The building of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Damascus came under the control of the “rebels”. Video from half an hour ago. pic.twitter.com/oQkMKiursg
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) December 8, 2024
Damascus International Airport:
“Stamp my passport by myself”#Damascus International Airport is completely empty of all staff and security. pic.twitter.com/ESkMtW91Mt
— Warfare Analysis (@warfareanalysis) December 8, 2024
Abandoned tanks and equipment in the middle of central intersections…
⚡️Scenes from Umayyad Square in central Damascus moments ago, SAA left a T-72 in the middle of the road
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) December 8, 2024
Widespread rumors begin…
Unconfirmed reports that an Ilyushin transport plane supposedly carrying #Assad has crashed. Again, unconfirmed is the key word here.
— Nabih (@nabihbulos) December 8, 2024
* * *
There are widespread reports that jihadist forces under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and which are backed by Turkey have entered key districts of Homs in central Syria, and other convoys have already reached the outskirts of Damascus.
Very little fighting has actually taken place, with the Syrian Army peeling back from position after position, and with heavy equipment including tanks seen being transported to the capital or in other instances to the coast. ZeroHedge’s contacts in Damascus strongly suggest a transition of power deal has already been made.
External discussions are centered in Doha, and some premature and unverified reports have claimed President Bashar al-Assad has already flown out of the country; however, Syrian state SANA on Saturday sought to refute these reports, saying he is still in Damascus.
Iranian advisers and IRGC officers have departed Damascus. This also partly explains why Syrian national forces have not put up much of a fight.
Unverified social media reports further say that anti-Assad forces have essentially been able to walk into suburban or countryside areas of the capital with no resistance. Again, what points to the likely reality of a secret deal which allows Assad’s safe exit and that of his top officials is the fact that all of this is happening without much bloodshed.
Below is the latest on the jihadist convoy locations according to The Guardian:
Syrian insurgents have reached the suburbs of Damascus, opposition activists and a rebel commander said on Saturday, as a rapidly moving offensive in which they have taken over some of Syria’s largest cities continued.
Rami Abdurrahman, who heads the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said insurgents were active in the Damascus suburbs of Maadamiyah, Jaramana and Daraya.
He said opposition fighters were also marching from eastern Syria towards the Damascus suburb of Harasta.
Hassan Abdul-Ghani, an insurgent commander, posted on Telegram that opposition forces had started to encircle Damascus in the “final stage” of their offensive. He said fighters were heading from southern Syria towards Damascus.
Map: The collapse of Syria over the last 10 days
Whatever happens next, it is becoming clear that the Baathist Syrian state under the Assad family, which goes back to 1970 when Hafez Assad first emerged in power, will never be the same again – and is coming to a fast end.
Many Christian, Alawite, and Sunni ruling families in the capital area are fleeing to the Lebanese border, not waiting around to take their chances under Taliban-style rule, despite dubious claims that HTS plans to respect ‘diversity’ and pluralism.
Footage from a key suburbs outside the capital [note: cannot be independently verified]…
SYRIA: Anti-Assad protestors bring down Hafez Assad statue in middle of Jarmana (20 min from Damascus). The protests and rebel offensive are only spreading, gradually approaching capital… pic.twitter.com/kkBhGsOlj2
— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) December 7, 2024
BREAKING — Damascus outskirts Al Moademyeh is free of Assad forces. This is right next to Mezzeh Air Base pic.twitter.com/ACLcRaTU1E
— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) December 7, 2024
Contradictory reporting over Assad’s whereabouts and political transition plans:
Embassy Statement: Denial of Allegations Made in Wall Street Journal Article pic.twitter.com/IEE8JmbQbt
— Jordan Embassy in Washington D.C. (@JorEmbUS) December 6, 2024
Regional war correspondent Elijah Magnier observes, “It looks like what will remain of the old Syria will be limited to Homs, for now, and on longer term Latakia – Tartous only. Lebanon should think about defended its borders. People in Damascus should think of their future in the next 24-48 hours.”
The latest from the Syrian presidency’s office:
Presidency of the #Syrian Arab Republic affirms that President Bashar al-Assad is assuming his work, national and constitutional tasks from the capital, Damascushttps://t.co/v4ko1Nfiek pic.twitter.com/Sj8CGjaE0C
— SANAEnglishOfficial (@SANAEnOfficial) December 7, 2024
Meanwhile the Syrian Interior Minister Major General Al-Rahmon vows that “there is a very strong security cordon on the outskirts of Damascus and no one can break it.”
Military commanders are still vowing to fight, and to mount a ‘fortress Damascus’ defense as the insurgent armies outside the capital are vowing to besiege it.
Syrian military commander makes a video statement:
“Our valiant army continues to carry out its operations against terrorist gatherings at high rates in the directions of the Hama and Homs countrysides and the northern Daraa countryside, inflicting hundreds of deaths and… pic.twitter.com/1DlTQkj8Dx
— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) December 7, 2024
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
