(The Economic Collapse Blog)—The damage caused by 4 years of “Bidenomics” has been so immense that it is difficult to put it into words. Everywhere we look, the U.S. economy is rapidly deteriorating all around us, and it would literally take a major miracle to turn things around at this point. Needless to say, the condition of the economy was one of the biggest reasons why Donald Trump won the election, and he insists that he can get fix it. Now he will get his chance. But the economic challenges that he is facing in 2025 are far greater than anything that confronted him when his first term began many years ago. If Trump is able to get the U.S. economy moving in a positive direction after everything that has happened during the past 4 years, it will truly be a historic achievement.
Nobody can deny the facts that I am about to present to you, because they are indisputable. Collectively, these facts clearly prove that our economy is a complete mess right now. The following are 25 signs that the U.S. economy is dying after 4 years of “Bidenomics”…
#1 In 2024, sales of previously-owned homes in the United States fell to the lowest level since 1995…
U.S. existing-home sales fell in 2024 to the lowest level since 1995, the second straight year of anemic sales due to stubbornly high mortgage rates.
High costs related to homeownership sapped sales again. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has hovered between 6% and 8% since late 2022, making it prohibitively expensive for many Americans to buy homes at current prices, which hit record highs last year. Rising home insurance and property tax costs are also adding to homeowners’ expenses. Unlike mortgage rates, which fluctuate, these costs are poised to continue rising.
#2 Pending home sales dropped another 4.5 percent last month. That was the fastest rate of decline that we have seen in more than two years…
Pending home sales fell 4.5% month over month in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest decline since October 2022. They dropped 2.3% year over year.
Homebuyer demand dipped at the end of the year because mortgage rates jumped. After inching downward at the beginning of the month, mortgage rates reversed course halfway through December and have been rising since—in part because the Federal Reserve projected fewer 2025 interest-rate cuts than anticipated. The weekly average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate now sits at 7.04%, the highest level since May, after hitting an early-December low of 6.6%.
#3 The proportion of credit card accounts that are just having minimum payments being made on them just hit the highest level in 12 years…
Americans are not okay financially, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.
The share of active credit card accounts making just the minimum payment hit a 12-year high of 10.75% from July through September 2024, based on data from the largest banks in the country, the Philadelphia Fed said on Wednesday. As credit card balances swell, the share of delinquent balances is also worsening, it said.
#4 The 60-plus-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans just reached the highest level ever recorded for the month of December…
The 60-plus-day delinquency rate of subprime auto loans rose to 6.15% in December, a new record for December in the data from Fitch, which tracks subprime auto-loan asset-backed securities (ABS), going back to their origins in the early 1990s. Subprime delinquency rates rose to record highs in 2023 and rose further in 2024. They peak seasonally in January in February. If January and February 2025 follow seasonal patterns, subprime delinquency rates will set new all-time highs (gold in the chart below).
#5 Credit rejection rates have hit levels that we have not seen since the global financial crisis…
The landscape of American credit has taken a stark turn for the worse, with rejection rates for various forms of credit reaching levels not seen since the financial turmoil of a decade ago. According to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, rejection rates for loans, including credit cards, mortgages, and auto loans, have spiked to 23%. This figure marks the highest recorded since the depths of the financial crisis, signaling a significant contraction in credit availability.
Moreover, the rejection rate for credit card limit increases has reached nearly 50%, indicating that even those with existing credit lines are facing unprecedented hurdles in expanding their credit.
#6 Restaurant chains are going bankrupt at the fastest pace since the beginning of the pandemic…
Chain restaurant bankruptcies are reportedly at their highest level since the pandemic.
Among the most recent examples is the casual dining franchise TGI Friday’s, one of more than a dozen high-profile eateries to seek bankruptcy protection between January and October of this year, Bloomberg News reported Thursday (Dec. 5), citing BankruptcyData.
According to the report, that’s the most through that date since 2020, and next year could bring more turmoil, with restaurant prices jumping due to increased labor costs, supply chain issues and steeper interest expenses, lessening consumer demand for meals away from home.
#7 After rising 12.7 percent in 2023, the cost of home insurance went up another 10.4 percent in 2024…
In 2024, insurers raised rates by 10.4 percent as of Dec. 27, which followed a 12.7 percent hike in the previous year, according to the Jan. 21 report from the company.
In total, 33 states saw premiums climb by double digits last year, with the largest spike seen in Nebraska at 22.7 percent. Premiums in Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Utah, and Washington jumped by more than 20 percent.
#8 The average price of a dozen eggs went up 36 percent in just 12 months, and it is expected to go even higher during the months ahead…
The average price of a dozen large, grade-A eggs was $4.15 in December, up from $3.65 in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Egg prices were also up more than 36% year-over-year in December, according to the Consumer Price Index.
“Not to be the bearer of bad news, but we’re in this for a while,” said Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board. “Until we have time without a detection, unfortunately this very, very tight egg supply is going to continue.”
#9 The household income required to purchase an average home in the U.S. has more than tripled since January 2012…
In January 2012, the household income required to afford the typical home in the U.S. was $39,223, according to Redfin. As of November 2024, home buyers need to earn $126,764, a 223% increase.
#10 A “healthcare giant” that operates 16 hospitals in the U.S. has just filed for bankruptcy…
A healthcare giant that operates 16 hospitals across four states has filed for bankruptcy – with plans to offload several of them.
Prospect Medical Holdings – which also owns 166 clinics across California, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, and employs 12,600 people – filed for Chapter 11 protection in Texas on Saturday.
The company, which was once an active buyer of struggling hospitals, has debts of more than $400 million.
#11 The hiring rate in the U.S. in the month of November was “the lowest since the early 2010s”…
Hiring was anemic at the end of 2024.
November’s hiring rate of 3.3% is the lowest since the early 2010s when the US was struggling after the Great Recession.
#12 The Washington Post has announced that it will be laying off about 4 percent of its workers…
The Washington Post has started laying off roughly 4 percent of its work force, the company said on Tuesday, as the newspaper struggles to stem millions of dollars in annual losses.
The cuts will affect fewer than 100 people across The Post’s business divisions, which include its advertising sales, marketing and information technology teams.
#13 It is being reported that CNN will be laying off hundreds of workers…
CNN boss Mark Thompson reportedly plans to announce mass layoffs Thursday — just days after he warned top on-air talent including Jake Tapper and Anderson Cooper that they ought to avoid “pre-judging” President Trump.
The ratings-challenged cable news pioneer will lay off hundreds of employees as it refocuses the business around a global digital audience, CNBC reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
#14 As a result of closing their Monterey plant, 433 Perdue Farms employees will be looking for new jobs…
Perdue Farms is closing their Monterey plant, the Putnam County mayor announced Thursday night.
The closure will leave 433 employees out of a job. Randy Porter, the mayor of Putnam County, says the plant has been a part of Monterey and the county’s economy for numerous years.
#15 Over the past year, Intel has laid off 3,000 workers in the state of Oregon alone…
Intel eliminated 1 in every 8 jobs across its Oregon workforce last year, reducing its local headcount by 3,000 positions as it sought to cut costs after a steep and sustained drop in revenue.
#16 Meta is one of the few companies that is doing fairly well right now, but they are conducting mass layoffs too…
Meta is planning on cutting about 5% of its workforce, with a specific focus on the company’s lowest-performing employees.
A Meta spokesperson confirmed the news in an emailed statement to USA TODAY Wednesday after first being reported by Bloomberg, citing an internal memo.
#17 Kohl’s has decided to permanently shut down 27 “underperforming” stores…
Twenty-seven “underperforming” Kohl’s stores are set to shutter this spring.
The locations, named late last week by Kohl’s, will permanently close their doors by April, according to the Wisconsin-based retailer.
#18 Over 200 Advance Auto Parts stores are up for sale…
More than 200 Advance Auto Parts stores, either the properties themselves or their leases, are being marketed for sale by Hilco Real Estate.
Raleigh, North Carolina-based Advance Auto, an auto aftermarket parts retailer, has tapped Hilco to manage the disposition of real estate properties and leases that span 46 states. The portfolio includes retail locations and “potential redevelopment parcels situated in densely populated urban areas and along strong commercial corridors,” Hilco, which is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, said Wednesday.
#19 Approximately 500 Big Lots stores will soon be shut down for good…
The company buying Columbus-based Big Lots has identified about 500 Big Lots stores, including several in central Ohio, that it plans to close.
Gordon Brothers, a Boston-based investment group, is offering to sell the stores’ leases, indicating that the stores will not remain Big Lots under new ownership.
#20 Walgreens has announced that it will be permanently closing 1,200 stores…
The thinning of Walgreens locations has been in the works. Walgreens said in October 2024 it planned to close about 1,200 underperforming stores across the U.S. as a strategy to offset declining profits resulting from low drug reimbursement rates and sluggish retail sales.
#21 In 2024, a total of 7,325 stores were closed in the United States. That was the highest number that we have seen since the early days of the pandemic…
Store closures in the U.S. last year hit the highest level since the pandemic — and even more locations are expected to shutter this year, as shoppers’ dollars increasingly go to a few industry winners, according to an analysis by Coresight Research.
Major retailers, including Party City and Macy’s, closed 7,325 stores in 2024, according to the retail advisory group’s data. That’s the sharpest jump since retailers in the U.S. shuttered almost 10,000 stores in 2020, the year when the Covid pandemic began.
#22 Coresight Research is projecting that a whopping 15,000 stores will be closed in the U.S. in 2025…
Retail closings in the U.S. are on the rise.
That’s according to Coresight Research, a research and advisory firm specializing in retail and technology, which predicts approximately 15,000 store closings and 5,800 store openings this year in the U.S
#23 Cargo theft in the United States has hit a brand new all-time record high for the second year in a row…
Cargo theft hit a record high in the U.S. and Canada for the second consecutive year, and the trend is expected to continue as criminal enterprises have become more sophisticated in their methods.
Verisk CargoNet’s annual analysis released this week found that cargo theft surged 27% from 2023 to 2024, hitting a record 3,625 reported incidents last year with an average value of $202,364 per theft. All told, the losses are estimated at more than $454 million.
#24 59 percent of Americans don’t even have enough money to pay for a $1,000 emergency expense…
Most Americans cannot afford a $1,000 emergency expense, with inflation and high interest rates affecting their ability to save adequately, according to a recent survey by consumer services company Bankrate.
A full 59 percent of Americans aren’t in a position to use their savings “to pay for a major unexpected expense, such as $1,000 for an emergency room visit or car repair,” said a Jan. 23 report from the company.
#25 61 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 and 35 say that they feel “financially stressed”…
About 61% of surveyed Americans of ages 18 to 35 are financially stressed, according to a new Intuit survey. About 21% of respondents say their stress has gotten worse over the past year.
Some of the biggest stressors included high cost of living, job instability and growing housing costs. Of those who identified as financially stressed, 32% said handling unexpected emergencies like medical bills, car repairs and home maintenance trigger their anxiety with cash, the report found.
Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
