U.S. Economy Faces $1 Trillion Risk if Trump Tax Cuts Expire, Study Warns

A recent analysis indicates that the U.S. economy could suffer a staggering $1 trillion blow if Congress does not extend the tax cuts implemented by President Donald Trump through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. This warning comes from a study by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), highlighting the potential economic fallout if these tax policies are allowed to lapse at the end of 2025.

According to the study, the failure to extend the TCJA could lead to the loss of approximately six million jobs and a reduction of $540 billion in wages. The manufacturing sector, in particular, would be hit hard, with an estimated loss of 1.137 million jobs, alongside a decrease in manufacturing worker compensation by $126 billion and a $284 billion hit to manufacturing GDP.

NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons underscored the urgency, describing the tax cuts as “rocket fuel” for manufacturers, significantly enhancing the U.S. economy’s competitiveness globally. He warned that without action from policymakers, the sector would face economic disaster, affecting the livelihoods of many Americans.

The study’s findings have sparked a debate among lawmakers. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) has advocated for the extension, labeling it an “investment in America” that would bolster capital growth. Conversely, during a recent House Ways and Means Committee hearing, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.) criticized the extension as a “cash grab” that would primarily benefit the wealthy, potentially adding $4.6 trillion to the national deficit.

Despite concerns about revenue loss and increasing the deficit, federal tax receipts have approached record levels, reaching $4.9 trillion in the last fiscal year. This figure is $1.6 trillion above what was collected before the TCJA was enacted, suggesting that the tax cuts did not necessarily lead to the revenue drop some had feared.

However, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget cautions that extending the TCJA would not generate enough economic growth to offset its cost to the deficit. They argue that tax cuts typically do not pay for themselves and call for measures to offset the revenue loss to prevent further ballooning of the national debt, which currently stands above $36.1 trillion.

This study and the ensuing political discourse come at a critical juncture as the U.S. government faces decisions on fiscal policy that could shape the economic landscape for years to come. The debate over extending the Trump tax cuts underscores the broader tension between promoting economic growth and managing the national debt.

According to the The Epoch Times:

A new study has concluded that the United States could risk a $1 trillion hit to the economy if Congress fails to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).

According to the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), not renewing President-elect Donald Trump’s tax reforms will cost the economy about six million jobs and $540 billion in lost wages.

Without an extension of the Trump-era tax cuts, the economic damage would total a $1.1 trillion hit to the GDP.

Jay Timmons, the president and CEO of NAM, says the manufacturing sector would also be harmed if lawmakers do not renew the TCJA.

The study determined that 1.137 million manufacturing jobs and $126 billion in worker compensation would be erased, reducing the manufacturing GDP by $284 billion.