(Kitco News)—Volatility in the gold market is picking up as the yellow metal set another record high this week. And while risks are building, the bullish trend is difficult to ignore as analysts continue to keep an eye on $3,000 an ounce next week.
The gold market has been on an unprecedented winning streak, ending the last eight weeks not only in positive territory but at all-time highs. The precious metal is on its longest weekly rally since mid-2000 when prices made their first run to $2,000 an ounce. Spot gold last traded at $2,935.80 an ounce, roughly flat on the day and up more than 2% from last Friday’s close.
At the same time, silver is seeing its fifth consecutive week of gains in an environment of higher volatility. Spot silver last traded at $32.51 an ounce, down more than 1% on the day but up 1% on the week.
Although the gold market is looking a little overpriced, Christopher Vecchio, Head of Futures & Forex at Tastylive.com, said he can’t ignore the bullish momentum that is supported by solid fundamentals.
Vecchio said that gold’s trend line from the bottom left to the top right means it’s only a matter of time before gold prices push to $3,000 an ounce and beyond.
Looking at gold’s technical price action, Vecchio said that gold has been finding solid support at its five-day moving average and until that momentum changes, he remains bullish on gold.
“Gold has a lot of narrative flexibility which will continue to support higher prices,” he said. “The fundamental pillars that have carried us here have only gotten stronger; whether it’s inflation fears, the breakdown of global trade, or the move away from traditional currencies in central bank reserves, those factors will remain very much in place.”
Lukman Otunuga, Manager of Market Analysis at FXTM, noted that gold has plenty of room to move higher. Due to ongoing geopolitical turmoil, investment demand in gold-backed exchange-traded funds has picked up in recent weeks.
He added that he expects new geopolitical uncertainty in Europe to continue driving safe-haven demand for gold next week.
“Europe’s largest economy goes to the polls on Sunday, February 23. And the outcome may shape its political and economic outlook over the next few years. An election outcome that leaves Germany with a fragmented parliament may spark a wave of risk aversion, boosting appetite for safe-haven assets like gold,” he said in a note to Kitco News. “Beyond politics, the U.S. PCE inflation report on Friday could influence gold via Fed cut expectations. Given gold’s zero-yielding nature, an inflation report that supports the case for lower U.S. rates could boost gold. Looking at the technicals, sustained weakness below $2,950 could trigger a decline back toward $2,900. If bulls can push prices beyond $2,950, the next key level will be the milestone of $3,000.”
James Stanley, Senior Market Strategist at Forex.com, said he expects gold prices won’t see any major resistance until prices hit $3,000 an ounce. He pointed out that this price level has become a psychologically important level, which will take time to work through.
“I would expect gold prices to go to $3,000 but then stay around there for a while,” he said.
Stanley said that gold’s rally beyond $3,000 will depend on the U.S. government’s fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
“Gold is going higher because even though the Federal Reserve is on hold it knows it can’t afford to raise interest rates any higher,” he said.
Looking ahead, Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said that inflation data could be the biggest risk for gold next week.
“The biggest risk for gold at this stage is a potential shift in monetary policy expectations; if inflation cools faster than anticipated or central banks adopt a more aggressive tightening approach, we could see downward pressure on prices,” he said. “Additionally, any significant rebound in the U.S. dollar or rising bond yields could challenge the current bullish momentum.”
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