GOP strategist and CNN political commentator David Urban pushed back against former Democratic New York Rep. Max Rose on Monday after Rose speculated President-elect Donald Trump had been targeting the Panama Canal due to an alleged inside promise.
Trump, on Saturday night, posted to Truth Social, warning Panama that the United States would demand the canal back if it didn’t end its “ridiculous” fees, “knowing the extraordinary generosity that has been bestowed to Panama by the U.S.” On “Erin Burnett OutFront,” Rose told the panel he believed the former president was threatening the country because “someone wrote him a check or someone had a pivotal meeting with him and made a promise for a future check if he acted on this issue.”
However, Urban responded to the former lawmaker by explaining the Panama Canal’s connection to China and how China has influence over the area.
“He’s so jaded! Listen to the jaded bitter guy from Staten Island there. I used to like him until a couple minutes ago,” Urban said. “Listen, Kate, it’s important. Here’s why it’s important. There is a major player in the Panama Canal that’s not Panama, it’s China, right? So the Chinese control the two biggest ports at either end of the canal.”
“In 2017, the Panamanians rejected the notion that they rejected Taiwan as a country. They sided with China. They recognized China.They signed the Belt and Road Initiative with the Chinese in 2018, expanding their sphere of influence in an area which 70% of all traffic is U.S. traffic going through from one port to another through the Panama Canal,” Urban added.
Urban went on to call out how it could be possible for the U.S. to take the canal back and how the U.S. military could be used in the process. (RELATED: EXCLUSIVE: Trump’s Incoming Border Czar Sees A Huge Problem With Biden’s Latest Deportation Numbers)
“The treaty which was signed leaves an out for the United States that says if the neutrality of the canal is threatened, we can take it back,” Urban said. “You know how we do it? With the U.S. military. I don’t know if anybody remembers Operation Just Cause, but we sent the U.S. military down there to kick some ass and oust the president and put a new president in. We did it within about like 24 hours. So we could do it. If I was the Panamanians, I wouldn’t cozy up to the Chinese too much. If I was the Chinese, I wouldn’t get too cute.”
CNN guest host Kate Bolduan continued to ask the GOP strategist if he took Trump’s threats against Panama seriously. Urban responded by calling out how the Panamanians should treat their relationship with China with caution.
“This is U.S. national security. U.S. national security is at interest here. There’s a neutrality provision that was put in that treaty for a reason. If that neutrality is threatened by the Chinese, their Belt Road Initiative continues to expand and threatens the U.S. in terms of whether it’s allowing passage of U.S. military ships or hindering trade,” Urban said. “That was obviously put in there for a reason. We can exercise that clause.”
Since the 1990s, reports have indicated that China has slowly increased its presence within the Panama Canal by winning contracts in order to establish container ports and positioning themselves at either end of the canal, according to the Heritage Foundation. In July 2018 China Communications Construction Co Ltd and China Harbour Engineering Company Ltd helped build a fourth bridge over the canal after winning a $1.42 billion contract, Reuters reported.
Trump’s callout of Panama comes after he said that the United States could take on Canada and absorb it as the 51st state. This, following Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying that the country isn’t able to handle a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
