Editor’s Note: We generally oppose fearmongering, especially over things that are out of our control. The reason we’re publishing this piece about a supervolcano is because the risks of food shortages are real. Whether it’s due to a volcano or meteor or terrorism or disease or whatever, it’s important that we all understand the need to take control of our own food security; yes, I’m a big fan of freeze dryers and backyard gardens. If the risk of a volcano is what it takes to wake certain people up, so be it. With that said, here’s Michael Snyder…
(End of the American Dream)—We are potentially just one eruption away from a horrifying global famine that could kill millions. It takes an absolutely massive amount of dust and ash to create the conditions that are necessary for a “volcanic winter”, and most volcanoes are simply not capable of releasing that much material. But when a “supervolcano” erupts, that is a completely different story.
Scientists tell us that there are 20 supervolcanoes on Earth, but there hasn’t been a major eruption of any of them in any of our lifetimes. Unfortunately, seismic activity is on the rise all over the globe, and we are being warned that the Campi Flegrei supervolcano in Italy is “awakening”…
Scientists believe a European supervolcano is “awakening” amid fears it could devastate food supplies worldwide.
Following a number of powerful earthquakes at Campi Flegrei in Italy, scientists are alarmed that a major eruption could be pending.
If a major eruption of the Campi Flegrei supervolcano was coming, we would expect to see a lot of earthquake activity, because earthquake activity is a sign that pressure inside the volcano is building up…
Experts say eruptions are usually preceded with the increase in earthquake activity, as underground pressure builds up.
These small quakes can weaken the rock above the volcano’s magma chamber, making it easier for magma to push through. Think of it like steam building in a pressure cooker, if the lid gets too weak, it could blow.
So has there been a lot of earthquake activity at the Campi Flegrei supervolcano lately?
Yes, there has.
In fact, it is being reported that there have been 6,000 earthquakes within the past six months, and the crater at Solfatara has been “spewing up to 5,000 tons of gas a day”…
A 4.4 magnitude quake hit Pozzuoli and Bagnoli in March, the strongest in 40 years. While 6,000 tremors have occurred in the last six months. A new study by Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology says the Solfatara crater is also spewing up to 5,000 tons of gas a day. The institute said that 80% of the carbon dioxide is coming from magma, while the rest is from hot liquids and calcite rocks interacting, another possible sign of the volcano’s awakening
When I was much younger, I actually visited Solfatara.
It smelled really bad back then.
I can’t even imagine what it smells like now.
Scientists are also telling us that “layers of the large, caldron-like crater that Campi Flegrei is in are weakening”…
One reason for the rise in seismic activity is that layers of the large, caldron-like crater that Campi Flegrei is in are weakening. Layers about 4km deep in the crater, called a caldera, have been softening since 2005 and the crust is now starting to crack. The team said there are two possible outcomes based on their findings. The magma will keep swirling beneath the surface before cooling, causing a ‘failed eruption’, or a ‘large volume’ of magma about 8km deep could ‘eventually’ break out
On top of everything else, magma inside the supervolcano has been rising, and it is now only a few miles from the surface…
According to Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), magma is now just a few miles below the surface, a shallow depth that raises more concern.
If pressure continues to build, it could trigger an eruption with little warning, especially with all the recent quakes and gas releases.
Read that last sentence again. I don’t like the sound of that at all.
If there was a full-blown eruption of the Campi Flegrei supervolcano, it wouldn’t just affect Europe.
Vast amounts of material would be released into the atmosphere, and we are being told that this “could cause years of cooler temperatures that would threaten food supplies worldwide”…
Authorities in Naples have critical evacuation plans for the millions living in the area. However, if an eruption were to happen, volcanic gases could cause years of cooler temperatures that would threaten food supplies worldwide.
Most of us have a hard time imagining what a volcanic winter would be like because we have never experienced one.
But there was a volcanic winter in 536 AD, and Wikipedia says that it resulted in millions of people dying…
The volcanic winter of 536 was among the most severe and protracted episodes of climatic cooling in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 2,000 years.[1] The volcanic winter was caused by at least three simultaneous eruptions of uncertain origin, with several possible locations proposed in various continents. Modern scholarship has determined that in early AD 536 (or possibly late 535), an eruption ejected massive amounts of sulfate aerosols into the atmosphere, which reduced the solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface and cooled the atmosphere for several years. In March 536, Constantinople began experiencing darkened skies and lower temperatures.
Summer temperatures in 536 fell by as much as 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) below normal in Europe. The lingering effect of the volcanic winter of 536 was augmented in 539–540, when another volcanic eruption caused summer temperatures to decline as much as 2.7 °C (4.9 °F) below normal in Europe.[2] There is evidence of still another volcanic eruption in 547 which would have extended the cool period. The volcanic eruptions caused crop failures, and were accompanied by the Plague of Justinian, famine, and millions of deaths and initiated the Late Antique Little Ice Age, which lasted from 536 to 660.
A full-blown eruption of the Campi Flegrei supervolcano would be much worse than that.
For a moment, just imagine what would happen to global food supplies if average temperatures plunged by 10 degrees or more.
It would be a nightmare.
Crops would be wiped out all over the planet and we really would be facing mass extinctions…
If Campi Flegrei were to reenact its largest previous eruption, it would punch molten rock and volcanic gases high into the stratosphere, unleash 100-feet-high (33.5 meters) tsunamis and spread a plume of sulfur and toxic ash that could plunge Earth into global winter for years — killing crops and causing mass extinctions.
Even if we never witness a supervolcano eruption, the global food crisis will continue to intensify and famines will become increasingly common.
This is something that I have extensively documented.
But an eruption of a supervolcano would accelerate our problems tremendously.
I don’t think that an eruption of the Campi Flegrei supervolcano is imminent.
However, scientists openly admit that it is certainly possible that we could see an eruption either this year or within the next few years, and if that happens all of our lives will be completely turned upside down.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
