Murmurings about the stability of the Islamic Regime in Iran are beginning to be looked at more seriously, as the dust begins to settle on the period of the last few months, which have been some of the most tumultuous in the country’s recent history.
A foreign policy with regard to Israel, which relied on the strength of its proxy armies in the several countries encircling the Jewish state (despite Khamanei’s meaningless protestations to the contrary) – the so-called “Ring of Fire” – painstakingly assembled over decades largely lies in tatters. His main ally in the Lebanese movement Hezbollah, former secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, was killed along with his most senior lieutenants in a two-month period from the end of July to the end of September.
Israel’s exploding beeper and walkie talkie operation exposed lapses in both Hezbollah and Iran’s organizational structures, revealing the depths to which Mossad intelligence agents had penetrated both. To that end, the hugely embarrassing elimination of Hamas leader Ismail Hanlyeh on Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps turf in the heart of Tehran was seemingly the catalyst for series of events potentially catastrophic for the regime.
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While the official Iranian media and the speeches of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei try to present regional developments as a summer cloud that Tehran will disperse, we as researchers monitoring the political, military and security movements internally, regionally and… pic.twitter.com/AD2HZItbTP— Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي (@evacool_) December 31, 2024
Perhaps the portents for Iran were less than stellar when we regard its initial ballistic missile strike on Israel on April 13. Having fired more than 300 projectiles, including cruise missiles and drones, many did not make it out of Iranian airspace, the majority that did were shot down by a previously unlikely coalition of Israel, the U.S., France, the U.K., Jordan, UAE, and Saudi Arabia – the latter three not allowing their country’s airspace to be used as flyover country for Iranian missiles. Israel’s response too, which some considered too subtle, actually impressed many in defense establishments across the world, who understood Israel had taken out a critical radar station with an ingenious new missile.
Iran’s October mass missile strike, where it launched some 180 projectiles, was more successful, not least because Israel could not count on the same coalition as six months previously. However, the upshot of this attack was an Israeli reprisal, which comprised of a third to a half of the entire Israeli airforce taking out all of Iran’s surface-to-air missile defense capabilities. […]
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Preparing for the Unexpected: Your Essential Partner in Health Readiness
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