(Zero Hedge)—Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has launched a “massive mobilization” of military personnel, weapons and equipment in order to “optimize command, control and communications” and ensure the defense of the country just as the US took the major step of sailing the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier into the Caribbean, amid an already unprecedented build-up.
The mobilization goes beyond the regular armed forces, but includes the Bolivarian Militia, a reserve force comprised of civilians established by the late President Hugo Chávez. This is a much celebrated ‘revolutionary force’ against the ‘imperialist powers’.
The Venezuelans do have reason to be paranoid, given President Trump starting months ago authorized the resumption of CIA covert operations in the Latin American country.
Additionally, the arrival of the USS Ford carrier and at least three of its escorting warships brings the total number of American troops in the region to 15,000.
Padrino López, who has the official title of Minister of People’s Power for Defense of Venezuela, described the mobilization as part of Maduro’s “Independence Plan 200” – which seeks to coordinate the military and civic response on a large-scale, including to defend the coasts.
Venezuela’s military does have surface-launched Russian missiles among others; however, recent photos and videos of civilian militia ‘training camps’ show low-tech and derelict weaponry (or also no weaponry at all).
Maduro has recently touted a volunteer militia ‘reserve’ force of some 8 million citizens – though again most of these are likely not even equipped with weaponry or much actual training.
But his regular armed forces are commonly estimated at less than 150,000 – which is low in comparison with most global militaries. According to The Washington Post:
Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López said Tuesday in a statement that Venezuela is preparing to set a maximum level of alert amid rising tensions with the U.S.
The objective is to place “the entire country’s military arsenal on full operational readiness,” Padrino López said. The preparations include “massive deployment of ground, aerial, naval, riverine and missile forces” with the participation of all security forces and militia.
We previously wrote that the clock is ticking on Washington’s looming anti-Maduro action – as the aircraft carrier finally arrived in Caribbean waters Tuesday after Trump ordered it to depart the Mediterranean where it was on a scheduled patrol.
President Maduro has from at least September been touring an army of “millions”, but…
?? From grandmothers to students, the people of Venezuela are training with rifles, not for war but to defend their land.
As U.S. pressure mounts in the South Caribbean, nationwide militias are forming under government guidance. These aren’t just military drills. This is mass… pic.twitter.com/zWX4CL49LY
— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) September 24, 2025
A commander-in-chief doesn’t typically spend weeks and even months building up dozens of naval assets and 10,000-15,000 troops in typically uneventful waters like the Caribbean, unless he intends to do something big. To wit, Trump’s June strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities included a fraction of the Caribbean buildup.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
