Democrat John Tester was considered very vulnerable in 2024 before news broke that he has his first potential opponent. Now, it seems even less likely the red state is going to send the leftist back to Capitol Hill next year because former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy is formidable.
I’m not ready to endorse him because, transparently, I know very little about him. The research I’ve done so far has been very positive as his mix of vast military experience combined with civilian business successes means he might be an ideal Republican to take down Tester. We’ll see. If he’s as good as I hope he is, I’ll write more about him soon.
Here’s the news about his announcement reported by Redwave Press:
Tim Sheehy, a businessman, firefighting pilot, and former Navy SEAL, has officially launched his campaign for the U.S. Senate in Montana, aiming to unseat vulnerable incumbent Sen. John Tester, D-Mont., in 2024. Sheehy, a Republican, announced his candidacy exclusively with Fox News Digital, emphasizing the need for “a new generation of leadership” and highlighting his background in military service and business.
In an interview with Fox News Digital, Sheehy expressed his belief that America is ready for change, citing issues such as inflation, border security, and the national deficit. He emphasized the importance of servant leadership and the ability to deliver results. Sheehy stated that many Americans feel underrepresented and disillusioned with a government that they perceive as not working for them, which motivated his decision to enter the race.
Sheehy’s campaign is anticipated to be one of the closely watched races in the 2024 cycle, with potential implications for the Republican Party’s quest for a Senate majority. However, Sheehy stressed the importance of unity, stating that in times of adversity, there is only one political party that matters—the American party.
Before entering politics, Sheehy served in various regions, including Iraq, Afghanistan, South America, and the Pacific, earning accolades such as the Bronze Star with Valor for Heroism in Combat and the Purple Heart Medal. In addition to his military service, Sheehy is an entrepreneur who owns several businesses. He is also a family man, sharing four children with his wife, Carmen Sheehy, a Marine veteran.
Reflecting on his journey, Sheehy discussed his military service and how it led to the establishment of his own company. After being wounded, he started Bridger Aerospace, a veteran-founded Montana-based company specializing in building aerial firefighting aircraft. Sheehy highlighted the significance of job creation and his commitment to contributing to the country by fighting wildfires and producing critical protective gear for troops.
Sheehy acknowledged the low participation rates of veterans in Congress and stressed the need for combat veterans and individuals with a strong sense of service to reinvigorate the government and address its shortcomings. Drawing upon his experience as CEO of Bridger Aerospace, Sheehy highlighted the bureaucratic hurdles that hinder forest management and wildfire suppression efforts. He advocated for locally-driven, common-sense land management policies that prioritize community governance and business principles.
Aside from Bridger Aerospace, Sheehy has played a role in the growth of Ascent Vision Technologies and owns the Little Belt Cattle Company, a local beef production company. He emphasized his commitment to creating high-paying jobs within Montana, with a focus on building a robust state economy.
Sheehy commented on the evolving political landscape in Montana, noting the increasing number of Republicans being elected in the state. He argued that it was not a result of Montana becoming more conservative but rather the Democratic Party moving away from the state’s cultural values. Sheehy characterized Montanans as socially conservative, hardworking individuals who value accountability and productivity.
Regarding his opponent, Jon Tester, Sheehy criticized the Democratic Party’s vision of a larger government and accused Tester of being aligned with that agenda. Sheehy claimed that Tester’s alignment with the Democratic Party’s ideology would make it difficult for him to distance himself from their policies during the campaign.
When asked about other potential Republican contenders, Sheehy stated that he would have to wait and see who joins the race. As of now, no other Republican candidates have officially entered the Senate primary, although there are rumors that Rep. Matt Rosendale, R-Mont., is seriously considering a bid.
Highlighting his dedication to serving all Americans, regardless of political affiliation, Sheehy emphasized his sacrifices for the country and his desire to bring common-sense solutions to the nation’s challenges. He acknowledged former President Donald Trump’s potential impact on the Montana Senate primary, noting that while he had a positive conversation with Trump, he wasn’t sure about the former president’s involvement in the race.
In a press release obtained by Fox News Digital, Sheehy characterized Tester as someone who does not represent Montana values and called for a new generation of leadership to rebuild America. He outlined his vision for the future, opposing inflation, open borders, prioritizing criminals over law enforcement, drug-related violence in communities, and the influence of a woke culture in schools and military bases.
In his highly anticipated Senate announcement, Sheehy criticized Tester’s long tenure in office and accused him of talking one way but voting differently. Sheehy argued that career politicians like Tester have failed to represent Montana values and that it is time for a new generation of leadership to rebuild the country.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
