(The Economic Collapse Blog)—What will the loss of hundreds of thousands of law-abiding citizens mean for New York City? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to answer that question. When large numbers of law-abiding citizens leave any area, conditions get worse. And when conditions get worse, that motivates even more law-abiding citizens to leave.
Meanwhile, the election of Zohran Mamdani will make the Big Apple a magnet for criminals, gang members, radical Islamists, economic parasites, far left political activists and those that have entered this country illegally. New York City has entered a horrifying death spiral, and there is little hope that this death spiral can be reversed any time soon.
According to a poll that was taken just before Mamdani’s victory, 9 percent of the entire population of New York City indicated that they would “definitely” leave if Mamdani won…
Hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers are prepared to bolt from the Big Apple if socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani wins Tuesday’s mayoral race — potentially setting the stage for the largest population flight in US history, an alarming new poll warned early Monday.
Around 765,000 people of the 8.4 million residents who call New York City home are preparing to leave, with about 9% of New Yorkers sharing that they would “definitely” leave the city if Mamdani is elected the 111th mayor, the Daily Mail reported, citing a survey conducted by J.L. Partners.
We have never seen anything quite like this before.
If 765,000 people actually leave the Big Apple, that will be roughly equivalent to the entire population of Washington DC…
If those residents were to leave, it would be equal to the population of Washington, DC, Las Vegas, or Seattle fleeing the city.
Another 25% of New Yorkers — about 2.12 million — said they would “consider” packing up and leaving.
But it isn’t just the sheer number of people that are threatening to leave that is the issue.
One of the reasons why New York City is one of the most important cities on the entire planet is because of the vast amount of wealth that is located there.
Now that Mamdani has won, wealthy New Yorkers are freaking out because he believes that capitalism is “theft”…
A lot of ultra-wealthy residents are threatening to flee, and that is a major problem, because the top 1 percent of all income earners pay close to 50 percent of all the taxes…
The top 1 percent of earners in New York pay around half the city’s income taxes.
With a significant proportion of them departing the city’s finances would collapse and there would be less money to pay for Mamdani’s policies, which involve subsidizing various parts of the city’s economy.
New York City is already facing an absolutely massive budget deficit next year.
So how will Mamdani be able to pay for all of his new social programs if ultra-wealthy New Yorkers start leaving in large numbers?
And how will Mamdani be able to maintain order if police officers start leaving in large numbers?
When Mamdani was asked about this, he openly acknowledged that the city is facing a “retention crisis”…
Socialist mayor-elect of New York City Zohran Mamdani said Friday that he is not concerned about backlash from law enforcement following his election victory and reiterated his plan to have social workers carry out certain duties currently done by law enforcement.
During a visit to Puerto Rico, Mamdani was asked if he was “worried” about backlash from the “law enforcement community.”
“I’m not worried about the backlash. What I’m worried about, frankly, is the continuation of a retention crisis that we’ve seen only deepen during the course of this campaign,” Mamdani said.
Mamdani is a smooth talker.
But there is no way that he is going to be able to talk his way out of this mess.
Every single day more New Yorkers are relocating, and one of the most popular destinations is Florida…
Election anxiety in New York City has turned into a real estate windfall in South Florida.
Developer Isaac Toledano, CEO of Miami-based BH Group, told Fox News Digital that his company has closed more than $100 million in signed contracts from New York buyers in just the past few months – about twice last year’s volume.
“I think the election accelerated how people make decisions,” Toledano said. “I think people are nervous [for] what’s coming, how it’s going to affect their lifestyle, the quality of life, taxes, potential of crime [or] no crime.”
Florida is already way too crowded.
This is going to make things even worse.
One real estate agent says that there is currently a lot of interest in waterfront properties “in the $20 million to $30 million range”…
‘We are seeing interest from New York City intensify because of the election,’ Dina Goldentayer, a Douglas Elliman agent in Florida, told the Daily Mail.
‘The city’s area codes 917 and 212 are popping up now almost as much as they did at the height of the Covid pandemic.
‘Most of the calls are from buyers, many Wall Street execs, looking in the $20 million to $30 million range. Specifically for waterfront houses or oceanfront condos.’
The weather in southern Florida is so nice for most of the year.
But is it a place that you would really want to be during the chaotic times that are coming?
Needless to say, it would certainly not be my first choice.
Up until just recently, many long-time New Yorkers never imagined that they would leave.
But now everything has changed.
It has been pointed out that voters that have lived in New York City for less than 10 years are the reason why Mamdani was victorious…
We are seeing similar patterns all over the nation.
In fact, it is being reported that this month we saw “a record forty-two Muslim candidates elected to public office across the United States”…
They told us the plan. Now we’re watching it unfold — in real time.
This week, terror-linked Islamic organizations are celebrating a stunning milestone: a record forty-two Muslim candidates elected to public office across the United States, the most significant wave of Muslim political victories in American history.
According to the Council on American-Islamic Relations’ (CAIR) own data, the newly elected officials span at least nine states — New York, Virginia, Michigan, New Jersey, Maryland, Washington, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. The list includes five mayors, four state legislators, two judges, and dozens of city council, county, and school board members.
The electorate has been transformed by decades of mass immigration.
This is something that many of us have been ranting about for a very long time, but there is no way to turn back the clock now.
Those that wanted to “fundamentally transform” America have largely succeeded, and now a 34-year-old Islamic communist that wasn’t even a U.S. citizen a decade ago is going to be the next mayor of New York City.
The largest city in the United States is about to descend into a state of complete and utter chaos, and everyone can see that this is a story that is not going to have a happy ending.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
