(Substack)—This morning started with the United States versus the world. By lunchtime, it was the world versus China thanks to a very targeted shift in how President Trump is handling tariffs. As he said on Truth Social:
Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
The stock market reacted favorably… to say the least. Gold and Bitcoin have also done well today.
According to CNBC:
Stocks surged Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced a pause in some of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, causing a market that’s been under extreme pressure for the last week to explode higher.
The S&P 500 skyrocketed 7.7%, on pace for its biggest one-day gain in five years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2,469 points, or 6.5%, also its biggest gain since 2020. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 9.8%.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified the President’s post, saying all countries except China would go back to the 10% baseline tariff rate as negotiations take place. The pause would not apply to sector tariffs, Bessent said.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick chimed in on X:
Scott Bessent and I sat with the President while he wrote one of the most extraordinary Truth posts of his Presidency. The world is ready to work with President Trump to fix global trade, and China has chosen the opposite direction. pic.twitter.com/wNvg8NBnSR
— Howard Lutnick (@howardlutnick) April 9, 2025
Was this the plan all along? Was China always the ultimate target? Did President Trump and his team use the reciprocal tariffs for the whole world as bait to see who else would lash out and who would fall in line?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says it was planned out perfectly:
NEW: Scott Bessent says Trump didn’t just raise tariffs—he set a trap, and China walked right into it.
This is what 4D chess looks like.
Markets are rebounding after President Trump slapped a 125% tariff on Chinese imports while giving a 90-day pause to other countries.
The… pic.twitter.com/M9KMreyWeG
— The Vigilant Fox ? (@VigilantFox) April 9, 2025
It’s hard to tell if Bessent was saying this was planned like this from the beginning or if it was developed on Sunday.
If this was part of the plan from the beginning, it’s a brilliant one. Not only did it give the administration an opportunity to see who would be a problem (those who lashed out) and who would be rewarded (those who came to the table first), but it also makes the trade war with China seem to be more their fault than America’s.
If this wasn’t part of the initial plan but was a reaction over the weekend by the White House to China’s and the world’s responses, then it’s very cunning. It would demonstrate the willingness of the administration to act nimbly based on rapidly changing factors.
With President Trump in the Oval Office, factors change rapidly by default.
Legacy media will spend the next couple of days saying that President Trump backed down because of the stock market or some other reasons, but that narrative won’t fly in the eyes of most who look at all of the factors. If he had dropped the tariffs on China, things would be different. By raising them instead, it focuses all economic eyes across the globe on Beijing’s reaction.
Whether this was orchestrated to make China the target or if it’s a reaction to multiple factors, the results are pointing to wins across the board for the Trump administration. Legacy media and the UniParty Swamp can spin this however they want. Most observers will see this for what it is, which is a sign of strength and recalibrated focus by an administration that is pushing forward with plans that benefit all Americans.
How high will the tariffs against China go? Kevin O’Leary wants to see them go to 400%.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
