Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales this year broke records—despite inflation. This doesn’t mean many Americans aren’t still struggling with high prices on everyday goods and Christmas gifts.
Liberal policymakers couldn’t help themselves: Ways and Means Committee Democrats, in a now-deleted post on X, cynically responded to the record-holiday shopping news report with, “And here we were thinking y’all couldn’t afford eggs!” Once again, they expose how out of touch they are with Americans’ hardship.
This holiday shopping season is off to a strong start, but that should not be confused with bountiful household balance sheets. Indeed, many consumers aren’t letting high prices hold them back from celebrating this year’s holiday season. Spending hit records on Thanksgiving Day ($6.1 billion), Black Friday ($10.8 billion), and Cyber Monday ($13.3 billion), according to data from Adobe Analytics. Perhaps because prices are high. The National Retail Federation projects that consumers will shell out $25 per person more on average this year compared to last year on gifts, food, and decorations.
One weekend or one month of consumerism won’t erase how financially stretched households feel. Even more, not everyone is spending. Many working-class and low-income Americans will alter and even skip holiday gift-giving due to high prices. A U.S. News & World Report survey found nearly 70% of Americans are worried about paying for gifts this year, with roughly 20% being “very” worried.
Holiday spending survey data from the Conference Board show that while households earning above $75,000 plan to spend more, consumers earning less than $75K will cut back on gifts and non-gift items this year.
Lost purchasing power from years of high prices has left the majority of households feeling squeezed. Two-thirds of Americans (65%) feel they are living paycheck to paycheck, up from just over half (52.5%) last year. Unaffordability is not just a poor-person problem; one out of five affluent households is living paycheck to paycheck as well. A $100 unexpected expense could financially sink 18% of all adults because that’s the most they have in savings.
While the inflation rate (or the consumer price index) isn’t as high as 2022, prices remain 20% higher than when President Biden took office.
As shoppers swipe plastic to pay for presents, they will incur sharply higher balances. Despite recent interest cuts by the Federal Reserve, the average retail credit card interest rates have risen sharply from 24% in 2021 to over 30% in 2024.
Voters were fed up with the sting of this economy when they gave conservatives a clean sweep. President-elect Donald Trump won working-class and middle-class households because he saw them and made boosting their incomes the cornerstone of his platform. Leftist elites spent the better part of nearly four years refusing to acknowledge high prices were a problem, then shifted to talking down to the uneducated masses about how great the economy was.
After weeks of post-mortems, the message from the invisible class of voters should be loud and clear. So when Democrats on the tax-writing congressional committee put out a tone-deaf tweet like this, they demonstrate obstinance, not ignorance.
There is a chance for redemption. Lawmakers on the left side of the aisle must join with conservatives to get serious about helping struggling Americans. They can start by extending expiring provisions of President Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Corporate and individual tax cuts delivered tremendous benefits for workers, families, and businesses. Corporate investment rose, as did gross domestic product. U.S. companies added 4.7 million new jobs, and real median household incomes grew by more than $5,000. Real wages rose by 4.9% in the two years after the law was signed—the fastest growth in 20 years—while income taxes fell for people at virtually every income level. The TCJA also triggered a bonanza of worker bonuses and new benefits.
If the tax cuts are allowed to expire, Americans will be stiffed with a massive tax increase just after the holidays next year.
The Left can gain some goodwill from hardworking Americans for passing tax relief, even if it means delivering Trump an early win. Or they can continue to condescend and turn a blind eye to the real hardship holding back too many American households.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
