Tomorrow, February 1, the Trump administration will slap 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on China, as announced during Friday’s press briefing by White House spox Karoline Leavitt, who denied reports of a delay to March 1.
There will be no delay, selective targeting, or slow roll-out of phased-in tariffs as speculated by Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank.
đšBREAKING: Karoline Leavitt confirms that the Reuters report is FALSE. Tomorrow, Feb 1st is the deadline for the tariffs
There will be a 25% tariff on Canada, a 25% tariff on Mexico, and a 10% tariff on China
No clarification on exemptions
They will be LIVE in under 24 hours pic.twitter.com/7pzV9pblD9
— Autism Capital 𧩠(@AutismCapital) January 31, 2025
That said, there could be certain exemptions – such as for oil and gas, which Leavitt did not elaborate on. For now, all we have to go on is Trump’s most recent comments on oil:
The United States imported nearly 4.6 million barrels of oil per day from Canada in October, and 563,000 barrels from Mexico. Daily US production over the same period averaged nearly 13.5 million barrels per day.
So in this scenario – full tariffs with zero quarter given, “we would expect to see USDCAD move decidedly higher come Monday, challenging the 1.50 level and representing a more than 3% move higher in the cross relative to current spot. To be clear, Canada could retaliate with dollar-for-dollar tariffs in absolute terms since its trade relationship with the US is balanced, however, USDCAD will still be higher given that the US economy is more than 10x the size of its Canadian counterpart,” according to DB. […]
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