(The Epoch Times)—House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has only one goal on the first day of the new Congress: keeping his job and tamping down a potential Republican mutiny.
On Jan. 3 at 12 p.m. ET, the 119th Congress will have its first sitting. Its first order of business is to choose a speaker: No other official business, including the Jan. 6 certification of President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory, can take place prior to the election of a speaker.
In order to keep the gavel, Johnson will need to win a majority of votes in the full House, though the threshold varies based on how many seats are vacant and how many lawmakers actually take part in the vote.
If the full House votes, as is likely, Johnson will need 218 Republicans to vote for him—a tall order, given that Republicans enter with 219 seats, and at least one Republican outright opposes him. One seat, that of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), is currently vacant, bringing the total of the full House to 434 members.
Johnson is favored to keep his position—but that could be easier said than done. Even with President-elect Donald Trump’s backing, several House Republicans have said publicly that they’re undecided or outright opposed to giving Johnson another turn with the gavel.
The situation is reminiscent of the start of the previous 118th Congress, in which it took five days and 15 ballots to name Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as speaker. Like Johnson, McCarthy faced questions about his conservative credentials and establishment ties.
Johnson enters the day in a stronger position—but far from a certain one.
And Democrats have made clear that, in spite of their May vote to save Johnson from a motion to vacate brought by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), they won’t be bailing the speaker out this time.
“There will be no Democrats available to save him,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told MSNBC.
Still, Johnson has said he’s optimistic about his chances.
“We’re going to get this done,“ Johnson told Fox News. ”We cannot afford any palace drama here. We have got to get the Congress started, which begins tomorrow, and we have to get immediately to work. …We have to stay unified. The American people gave us a mandate.”
Normally, a handful of GOP dissenters wouldn’t be much of a problem for a would-be speaker: Few Republican speakers ever achieve unanimous support from their ideologically diverse conference.
This time, in the incoming Congress, the narrow Republican majority means that every defection is potentially crippling to Johnson, who can spare no more than one GOP opponent.
So far, one Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), has expressed hardline opposition to Johnson’s bid, saying in a post on X, “On January 3rd, 2025, I won’t be voting for Mike Johnson.
“I hope my colleagues will join me because history will not give America another ‘do-over,’” Massie said, comparing Johnson to former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), who clashed openly with the president-elect during his first term.
Mounting Reservations
Some Republicans have also expressed reservations. They feel that Johnson failed to gain enough wins during his first term and have condemned his decisions on government funding and other legislation.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) was the second Republican to indicate concerns about Johnson.
“I remain undecided, as do a number of my colleagues, because we saw so many of the failures last year that we are concerned about that might limit or inhibit our ability to advance the president’s agenda,” Roy told Fox Business on Dec. 31.
Members of the House Freedom Caucus could be a particular problem for Johnson. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the influential caucus, told The Epoch Times that they had a meeting about the vote on Jan. 2, but no details of the meeting were disclosed.
Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), the House Freedom Caucus’s chairman, is undecided, his spokesperson Anna Adamian told The Epoch Times on Dec. 31.
Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) indicated he’s in the same boat.
“I haven’t publicly or privately committed yet,” Biggs told Fox News on Dec. 30. “I do want to speak with the speaker just to see what his plans are, because there are some issues that I think need to be worked out, specifically dealing with the budget issues.”
Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) also hasn’t made a decision about her vote yet, she told reporters in the Capitol on Jan. 2.
In an interview on “Fox and Friends” earlier the same week, Spartz hinted at the reasons for her reservations, suggesting that she was unimpressed by Johnson’s record in his first term.
“Unfortunately we will not be able to deliver on President Trump’s agenda … if we don’t have a Speaker with courage, vision, and a plan,” Spartz said.
Greene could also come out against Johnson, with whom she’s had a handful of high-profile clashes in the past.
In November, Greene told The Epoch Times she wouldn’t mount a challenge to Johnson, citing the lack of declared challengers and the conference’s unanimous decision to nominate him. That position could also change as pressure mounts from other Republicans.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
