(The Economic Collapse Blog)—A recent survey discovered that 79 percent of Americans believe that the U.S. is on the wrong track right now. As a nation, we may not agree on much, but this is one thing that almost all of us can agree on. Needless to say, the economy is the number one reason why so many people are dissatisfied with the direction that the country is heading. Over the past four years the cost of living has risen much faster than paychecks have, and as a result our standard of living has been going down. Now we have reached a point where tens of millions of U.S. consumers have been squeezed bone dry, and as a result businesses are failing all over the nation.
Traditionally, the performance of the home improvement industry has been a very important economic harbinger.
And at this moment the home improvement industry is really struggling.
For example, True Value has been doing so poorly that it was finally forced to file for bankruptcy…
True Value, a 75-year old hardware store brand, has filed for bankruptcy and is selling substantially all of its operations to a rival, the company announced Monday.
In a press release, True Value said it will continue day-to-day operations of selling hardware and other homeware tools to its 4,500 independently operated locations during the Chapter 11 process, which includes a $153 million stalking horse bid from rival company Do it Best.
Meanwhile, Home Depot says that sales in 2024 will be down quite a bit from 2023…
The home improvement retailer said it now expects full-year comparable sales to decline by 3% to 4% compared with the prior fiscal year. It had previously expected comparable sales, a metric that takes out the impact of store openings and closures and other one-time factors, to decline about 1%.
In an article that I posted last week, I mentioned that Home Depot has been dumping millions of square feet of warehouse space.
They wouldn’t be doing this if they thought that the economy would be turning around any time soon.
Another giant in the home improvement industry, PPG, has decided the time has come for mass layoffs…
PPG — a global manufacturer of paints, coatings, and specialty materials — is laying off nearly 2,000 workers as it trims operation costs and sells off a chunk of its architectural business.
The cuts will impact about 1,800 positions, primarily in the U.S. and Europe. PPG didn’t disclose when the layoffs would occur.
The Biden administration continues to insist that all is well, but the home improvement industry is telling us a completely different story.
Meanwhile, drug stores continue to shut down all over the nation at a staggering pace.
In fact, Walgreens just announced that it will be permanently shutting down 1,200 stores…
Walgreens said on Tuesday it would shut 1,200 stores over the next three years as new CEO Tim Wentworth plots a turnaround at the struggling pharmacy chain operator hit by sluggish consumer spending and low drug reimbursement rates.
You don’t shut down more than a thousand stores if you believe that good times are ahead.
Let’s be real.
The restaurant industry is also being hit extremely hard in this difficult economic environment.
Last week, I was saddened to learn that TGI Fridays has been closing locations all over the country…
Your ability to enjoy a plate of loaded potato skins and $5 happy hour drinks is slowly dwindling, as TGI Fridays has closed 12 U.S. locations in the past month and shuttered 35 restaurants across the pond.
According to the company’s location section on its website, multiple TGI Fridays locations in the Northeast closed last week, including in Clifton Park, Middletown and Poughkeepsie, New York; Allentown, Pennsylvania; Enfield, Connecticut; and Leesburg, Virginia.
Additional closures from earlier this month took place in the Southeast and Midwest regions, in states like North Carolina, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana, as well as two locations in Minnesota.
If TGI Fridays anticipated that economic conditions would soon turn around, they would try to keep these restaurants open. But the truth is that the writing is on the wall.
Even churches are feeling the pain. According to a recent study that was conducted by Lifeway Research, giving has been falling from coast to coast…
A majority of Protestant pastors are blaming a poor economy for their struggling bottom lines after experiencing double-digit declines to zero improvement in financial offerings from churchgoers over the last year, data from a new study released by Lifeway Research show — but the sentiment is divided along political lines.
“National trends of a favorable stock market along with unfavorable inflation and interest can influence a local congregation’s finances, but so do more local factors that contribute to economic problems or prosperity in the church’s community,” Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research, said in a statement on the study. “In general, pastors have turned a little more negative in describing economic forces impacting their church this year.”
What do all the examples that I just shared with you have in common?
They all show that most consumers don’t have a lot of discretionary income to spend right now.
Or as Gerald Storch put it during a recent interview with Maria Bartiromo, “consumers are running out of money”…
US corporate media outlets continue to push propaganda that the economy thrives ahead of the presidential elections, cheerleading the most recent retail sales print. However, most Americans know MSM is full of ‘malarkey’ because inflation and interest rates force many to spend more but receive less. Many folks have depleted their personal savings and racked up insurmountable credit card debt just to keep up with rising food, energy, insurance, and shelter costs. This toxic mix of inflation, sparked by failed Bidenomics, has hit low- and middle-income families the hardest, potentially leading to a breaking point this upcoming holiday shopping season.
“It’s very clear that consumers are running out of money. They’re increasingly stressed by inflation and the exhaustion of their pandemic-era savings. When you take a look over the last several years, what you see month after month, everyone talks about, the consumer’s still spending. They might be, but they’re spending less than the growth of inflation,” Storch Advisors CEO Gerald Storch told Fox Bussiness’ Maria Bartiromo on Thursday during an interview.
That is the bottom line.
Millions of U.S. consumers have been squeezed and squeezed and squeezed and now they are bone dry.
Last year I warned my readers that we had reached an “economic tipping point”, and now things are starting to roll downhill very rapidly.
There is a tremendous amount of frustration that has built up over the past four years, and I think that all of that frustration will play a major role in determining which party wins the White House in November.
Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
