(End of the American Dream)—It feels like peace is slipping away. In the Middle East, Israel is fighting with both Hamas and Hezbollah once again. In Europe, the Ukrainians and our European allies have rejected President Trump’s 28 point peace plan. Meanwhile, the Russians continue to march forward and capture more territory. In the Pacific, the U.S. and China are both preparing for war with one another. And in South America, it appears that a regime change war against Venezuela could commence at any moment. Could it be possible that we are in the final days before global stability is completely shattered?
I am extremely concerned about the events that we have been witnessing over the last several days. The following are 10 signs that peace efforts are failing on multiple fronts…
#1 Israel just conducted a new wave of airstrikes in Gaza. It is being reported that at least 14 people have died, and dozens more have been wounded…
Israel’s military on Saturday said it launched airstrikes against Hamas terrorists in Gaza in the latest test of the ceasefire that began on Oct. 10. Health officials in Gaza reported at least 14 people killed and another 45 wounded, including children.
Similar waves of strikes have occurred during the ceasefire after reported attacks against Israeli forces.
The Israel Defense Forces said in a statement that an “armed terrorist” used a road through which aid enters the territory to cross the yellow line that was established in last month’s ceasefire. The boundary leaves Gaza’s border zone under the control of Israel’s military, while the area beyond it is meant to serve as a safe zone. The person fired at soldiers and was killed by the IDF, the Israeli military said.
#2 Hamas has informed the Trump administration that the ceasefire is “over” and that they are “ready to fight”…
Hamas has warned US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner that the Gaza cease-fire is “over” and they are “ready to fight,” sources told Saudi state-owned media Al Arabiya, the Jerusalem Post is reporting.
The terror group’s about-face comes after an Israeli strike on Gaza Saturday took out Hamas’ chief of weapons supply, Alaa Hadidi, which it slammed as a violation of the US-backed cease-fire.
The IDF said the strike was in retaliation to a Hamas operative crossing into the humanitarian relief zone and opening fire on Israeli troops.
#3 The IDF just conducted an operation in Beirut that took out Hezbollah’s chief of staff Haytham Ali Tabatabai…
Things between Israel and Lebanon just escalated in a major way on Sunday, as the Israeli military launched a major attack on the capital of Beirut, in what later announced as another targeted strikes on top Hezbollah leadership.
The Israeli military (IDF) announced that it “eliminated” Hezbollah’s chief of staff Haytham Ali Tabatabai, after Lebanon’s official National News Agency (NNA) reported that two missiles were fired at an apartment building on al-Arid Street in Haret Hreik neighbourhood of Dahiyeh.
A large plume of smoke could be seen rising above the area, said to be a Hezbollah stronghold of southern Beirut, and extensive damage to cars and surround buildings resulted.
#4 In response, Hezbollah is warning that a “new red line” has been crossed and that any agreements with Israel “are useless”…
An official statement from Hezbollah didn’t immediately confirm the killing of Tabatabai but said it “breaches a new red line” – following recent weeks of a series of escalating Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, despite the ceasefire having long officially been in place.
Hezbollah’s statement alluded to the ceasefire, saying that “agreements are useless with the enemy” and that “We are coordinating with the Lebanese state to put an end to this Israeli violation.”
#5 President Trump is very angry that the Ukrainians and our European allies are not willing to accept his 28 point peace plan…
A furious Donald Trump has today accused Ukraine of showing ‘zero gratitude’ over his peace plan to end the war with Russia.
The US President called the conflict ‘a loser for everyone’ and said that he had ‘inherited a war that should have never happened’.
Trump’s 28-point plan to end Moscow’s nearly four-year invasion has been heavily criticised by several senators as being a ‘Russian wish list’, with it including demands that Ukraine hand over territory and drastically reduce the size of its armed forces.
#6 The Ukrainians and our European allies continue to act as if they have a great deal of negotiating leverage, but meanwhile the Russians just continue to gobble up more Ukrainian territory…
The Chief of Russia’s General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, said on Thursday its forces had captured the largely destroyed city of Kupiansk, though Ukraine denied it.
On Friday, Kyiv said that Russian forces had launched six attacks on Kupiansk, but said nothing about it changing hands.
The Russian Defence Ministry statement on Friday said three other villages in the Donetsk region – Stavky, Novoselivka and Maslyakivka – were now under Moscow’s control, as well as a village in neighbouring Dnipropetrovsk region.
#7 Dragging NATO directly into the conflict is the only possible way that Ukraine can win their war with Russia. Why do European officials keep talking like this may actually happen? Recently, the head of the armed forces in France publicly stated that French parents need to be emotionally prepared to have their children die while fighting Russia…
The head of the French armed forces said his country must be prepared to send its children to die in a war with Russia.
“Russia is convinced that the Europeans are weak. However, we are strong, fundamentally stronger than Russia,” Chief of the French Defense Staff General Fabien Mandon said. “We have all the knowledge, all the economic and demographic strength to dissuade Moscow’s regime. What we are lacking, and that is where you have a major role, is the strength of soul to accept pain to protect what we are.”
He added, “If our country is weak because it is not ready to accept losing its children — because it’s better to say things clearly — [and] to suffer economically because the priority will be the defence sector, then we are at risk.”
#8 The United States and China both continue to prepare for an “impending war” in the Pacific…
The US has outlined the contours of an “impending war” with China, which also includes some Pacific island groups, and preparations for the clash are underway at an accelerated pace, writes Newsweek.
Nations like Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia, as well as the US territories of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, are part of what the Pentagon calls the “second island chain.”
This arc, as the name suggests, serves as a defensive line to contain Chinese forces in the event of a full-scale conflict, located behind the first one, which stretches from South Korea to the Philippines.
#9 If the U.S. was going to start conducting airstrikes in Venezuela, it is likely that a NOTAM would be issued first. So the fact that a NOTAM was just issued for the entirety of Venezuelan airspace until February 19th should deeply alarm all of us…
It has been weeks since Trump’s major military build-up off Venezuela began, and the threat of potential escalated military action against Caracas remains imminent. This scenario may have just gotten a big step closer with a fresh NOTAM alert issued by the FAA.
The FAA issued the NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions), or alert notifying pilots of potential serious hazards in certain airspace, for the Maiquetía Flight Information Region. This area covers all of Venezuela and parts of the southern Caribbean sea.
Importantly, the warning cites a “potentially hazardous situation” and “heightened military activity” over Venezuela and waters just off its coast, and is to expire Febuary 19th, 2026.
#10 Based on conversations with four anonymous officials, Reuters is reporting that the U.S. is very close to making a major move against the Maduro regime…
The United States is poised to launch a new phase of Venezuela-related operations in the coming days, four US officials tell Reuters, as the Trump administration escalates pressure on President Nicolas Maduro’s government.
Reuters is not able to establish the exact timing or scope of the new operations, nor whether US President Donald Trump had made a final decision to act. Reports of looming action have proliferated in recent weeks as the US military has deployed forces to the Caribbean amid worsening relations with Venezuela.
Two of the US officials say covert operations would likely be the first part of the new action against Maduro. All four officials quoted in this article speak on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the impending action by the United States.
The dominoes are all lined up and ready to fall.
War has been a major theme in 2025, and I am entirely convinced that war will be an even more prominent theme in 2026.
Up to this point, we have been extremely fortunate.
So far nobody has decided to use a weapon of mass destruction, but once someone crosses that threshold everything will change.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
