Things are looking pretty solid for Republicans in a presidential election year. The current administration is a disaster with only the most loyal Democrat sheep staying with the herd. The GOP has its presumed nominee despite protestation from Camp Nikki. Public sentiment continues to lean right with traditionally secure Democrat voter groups peeling away.
Unfortunately, it’s all one big trap. Much of the effort to raise dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris regime is going to be wasted if Democrats perform the maneuver that a growing number of analysts are starting to predict. If/when Joe Biden declares that he’s not running for reelection, he will become the ultimate political scapegoat for all of the bad things happening in America today. And if/when Michelle Obama or someone else is airdropped into the nomination, the campaign clock will be reset.
Corporate media is foaming at the mouth to see it happen, but they’re holding their calls for Biden to step down so he can absorb as much voter dissatisfaction as possible. The shorter the Obama campaign is, the better because she simply doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. The DNC and their puppet masters want Biden to be as disastrous as possible so his replacement can rebound and peak just before the election.
It’s like political Aikido. They want Republicans to launch their full attacks on Biden only to have them deflected by Obama. Is the border crisis Biden’s fault? Yes it is, they’ll say. And they’ll come back with how Obama’s border policy will fix it, thus neutering the GOP’s argument in the eyes of low-information voters.
Is the economy tanking? Rather than trying to defend the indefensible, Democrats will simply say that BIDEN’s economy is failing but OBAMA’s economy won’t. And don’t get me started on abortion, which may be the biggest tell about their plans. If they wanted Biden to win another term, they would have him focus hardcore on fixing the border before the summer so he could turn a big loser into a winner. Instead, they’re focusing on abortion which would only be a smart move if they intend on running a woman like Michelle Obama.
She’s almost certainly running, or at least considering it. Or, to be more accurate, the powers-that-be are considering running her. The only reason they would look to someone else like Gavin Newsom is if they intend to bring in some wacky running mate like Oprah Winfrey. It wouldn’t shock me if they reversed it to an Oprah-Newsom ticket. Regardless of who they’re planning on running, it’s best to act as if it’s not going to be Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. And if for some reason the Biden-Harris ticket is kept, then the strategy shift I’m recommending still won’t harm Republican chances.
Time to Ignore the Placeholder
If Republicans want to mitigate the damage that will happen if/when Biden is replaced, they need to stop talking about him specifically. Any attack against Biden’s border policy today will be negated by his replacement. Any condemnation of the economy today will be blamed on Bidenomics by a future candidate.
Republicans need to start talking in terms of Democrats as a whole. They must stop blaming Biden for the border and make their message encompassing so it’s the Democrats’ border policy. This is challenging because Republican strategists and commentators have been trained to attack individuals. The GOP will need to engage in the Democrat playbook of attacking the group. Just as they call us “MAGA Republicans,” we need to start addressing them as “Open Borders Democrats.” That’s the message that needs to stick.
Once Biden is replaced, the GOP can go back to what they know best and focus their attacks on the candidate, but in the meantime all attacks specifically against Biden and Kamala Harris will be wasted. We cannot disregard the stupidity of most voters and the ease in which corporate media will be able to sell them on Michelle Obama being different from Joe Biden. Unfortunately, voters won’t realize how much worse she is than Biden until she’s already destroying the nation.
What do you think? Join the conversation over at my Substack.
Bypass Big Tech Censors
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
